IMHO Assad is has always been weak and remains weak on many tangents.
My view that Assad is (or is becoming) a vassal of Iran is follows his recent rhetoric which / like yourself/ is more interested in lambasting federalist Syrians than ensuring a strong Syrian identity under whatever system.
Iran and Turkey have a deal to calve up what used to be Iraq and Syria into spheres of influence (vassal states) for the stated purpose of undermining Kurdish nationalism and revolt within the region and more specifically (of course) within Iran and Turkey.
In previous months Russia tried to make Assad see sense and reach some sort of preliminary accommodation with the Northern Federation but his project may have failed. Assad should well know that once an area is secured by the Turkish Army (as opposed to HTS with a few MIT advisors) the Turkish Army WILL NEVER LEAVE! Take a trip to Cyprus to see what will happen.
HTS is a split organisation. It's always been a hodge podge of entities ranging from pro-Turkey Al Qaeda linked internationalists to local Syrian units that maintained locally based support. Apparently many local HTS units have refused to fight for Turkish interests in Afrin and their leaders have reportedly been arrested & detained by Turkey (I assume the MIT). If he were smart, Assad could use the HTS split to advantage but he would also need the YPG to play a hand.
As for Trump I'm not sure that he understands or cares about any of this however like Putin he will have been advised in exacting detail of Turkey's previous links with ISIS, the false flags, the train loads of materiel, purchase of ISIS oil and so on. How Putin and Trump's advisors react to the Afrin threat remains to be seen but it is in Syria's interests that they do. Putin is playing economic links with Turkey in the background and Trump??? I can't really guess Trump but Tillerson says the US is there to stay.
My view is that the US will remain while Iran remains insitu.
I don't rely on links and my views are my own. Iran and Turkey joined forces to snuff out Kurdish separatism in Iraq (there is plenty of media on this) and I am assuming the same agenda exists in Syria.
That said the Syrian Kurds were not seeking an independent state but rather a devolved governance structure that guarantees regional autonomy. As posted repeatedly, any success on this front would necessarily dilute the influence of the PKK.
Regarding the PKK, Tillerson and Putin both well know that Erdogan tore up the peace agreement signed by his representatives to further his domestic political ambitions. This act also played into the hands of hardliners within the PKK.
