Slightly further south in Idlib and Dana , Russia and Turkish...

  1. Osi
    15,850 Posts.
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    Slightly further south in Idlib and Dana , Russia and Turkish troops are lining up on opposite sides.

    On the ground I don't believe anyone can stop Al Qaeda (HTS) and Iranian/Iraqi/Lebanese Shia militias fighting it out. Once this fight elevates Turkey may use it as cover to advance into Afrin and/or towards Manbij IMHO. Why? Turkey does not actually care about Idlib but it needs a plausible excuse to attack the decentralised form of government which they see as a treat to centralized/autocratic control in the broader region.

    The Turkish anti-Kurd rhetoric does not gel from a Turkish national interest or logical perspective. For the Syrian Kurds to sustain the structure of governance that they are promoting Sunni Arab support must be retained. The Kurds must slowly hand over actual control to aligned Sunni Arab parties because Kurds are a minority group in Northern Syria. In that possible future, the PKK influence would be diluted.

    Regardless, the bullets and shells are travelling in one direction only. Other than words, there has been no return fire directed into Turkey.
    Last edited by Osi: 15/01/18
 
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