Thank you for all of the kind concerns about me. I am OK and have made my mind what I will do about my PRR holding.
I will bet on it until next benchmark, IND application and Phase III trial start and after that I would try to know the new factors to PRR future prospective.
But pattyp is right I am a ordinary mate only and please note I bet on PRR since I have the faith on both its CVav and my affordable capability to lose all of my initial capital and my paper profit.
I don't really think the SPP very seriously since I want to get the dollars from PRR with tight monitoring on it. However in my view:
1. I believe PRR needs the money as all of us, which never could be enough if you are ambitious on anything.
2. Logically I feel SPP should be announced with some good news since PRR has got enough money to fill the application of IND.
3. The price of SPP would follow some standard discount ratio the market would like to follow.
4. What exactly price of the PRR should not be known exactly now.
4.1> It is because no one wants to give out the money in free.
4.2> SPP is to get the money into the house not pay the money out even to its shareholders.
4.3> SPP price would make PRR board very headache. The price if too low/too high, would hurt PRR.
4.4> So it should be a price which is the market acceptable and high enough.
4.4.1> It is one easy to say but hard to do.
4.4.2> The market sentiment and the progress for PRR in CVav commercialization and divest its no-core assets would play a key part.
5. Join or not join SPP should decide based on your evaluation of the probability of the reward and your risk profile rather than the SPP price.
5.1> I don't know what's PRR price tomorrow morning but I do know if CVav could go through Phase III trial, it should be dollars.
5.2> I do feel PRR has very high probability to be dollars. However I don't really know when so I use the word, "bet."
6. SPP never could be the good tool to trade any market target.
***
The market worst, in Warren Buffett's words, the Pearl Harbor, has passed by but Australia's economy recession looks inevitable.
Market usually advances the economy for 6-12 months. So it is quite possible the market as a whole would be much better than the market expectation. It seems to say no system risks to buy the pennies in diversification since they are all in lower part of the history bottom channels.
However at any time we have to control our cash flow positive or in business term we should not have the balance sheet pressure. No risk no money too much risk we would be in hell. So if you could move forward, I do feel it is the time to buy and hold until moms and dads move in.
Last 10 years are terrible years to Biotech and market. The bad years are the necessary preparation for good years. I am busy to know better about market cycles and economy cycles. It is a time we need the logic and common senses with the historical and future prospectives.
***
80% of my pennies turn into greed. My risk portfolio have recovered back to the level at the end of 2007. Big winning doesn't depend on how we play the blips but if we could ride a 4-7 years big booming from its beginning to its historic peak.
I feel I could fail to get the dollars from PRR but in the booming time some may work for my dollars. Who knows? We do need to open the door to the chances and jump in with the capital we could afford to lose.
The more choices the more probability we get our dollars. Please don't misunderstand me.
1. PRR has enough break events(not even) in next two years. It is chances to get a life turning points
2. PRR could fail since we could not know future good enough let alone there are a lot of unprecedented events.
***
Good luck for all. GB's post is excellent about PRR and show all of the potential of PRR. Now we need to count our bag for the affordability of the risks.
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