wilson htm update, page-17

Sharks
the reason I come to a different conclusion's is that I am not assuming a decline pattern as you use.

I have no info on decline so I can only go on what MAD have released. Back in the perion Oct 2010 to July 2011 MAD was reporting flow rate per well every month.

What these showed that Wells basically flowed the same rate for several month's then stopped very quickly.

If you apply this sort of pattern to the current drilling program then you can expect very rapid increase over the first 4 or 5 months then significant deteriation in the increase and then no increase.

We are yet to enter the deteriation zone for MAD. It starts in the 3rd qtr so I will just wait and see.