Yaq,
Have a look at a historical $AUD copper chart and one thing you will note is downside in $AUD is limited. If copper was to fall to US $2.50 per lb as you hypothesis then the AUD would more than likely be trading around $US 0.60 and the aussie housing bubble would be well and truly burst. In this scenario HGO would be making money hand over fist!
wilson's assumptions - are they valid?, page-4
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