wilson's assumptions - are they valid?, page-7

Phil,

I didn't hypothetise that copper will end up at US$2.50/lb.

What I did say is that it is unreasonable to base your valuations assuming copper price to be 20% higher than the spot price. And I went on to say that depending on what happens to the world economy, you could see anything from $2.50 to $5.00. And that picking exactly what copper prices are likely to be is highly uncertain.

And even with 50%+ hedging, valuing HGO and other producers is very sensitive to what your copper price assumptions are.

Nothing controversial there, surely? It is just that we live in a very volatile time where commodity and equity markets tends to whip-saw violently. (As we saw last night).

Good luck picking the copper price for tomorrow or next week, let alone 2012 and beyond.

Yaq