this is an edit of key points of report from Wilsons dated 19 April, plenty to be bullish about...
"Competitive landscape recap. Anavex’s blarcamesine (2-73) Phase II/III trial in paediatric Rett patients (EXCELLENCE trial) is set to report in 2H 2023 (delayed from 1H readout). Questions still remain around the company’s appearance of a changed trial phase and study endpoint mid- trial. We note their recent hiring of ex-FDA neurology statistician Dr Kun Jin onto their team – we suspect to deal with planned FDA submissions related to Rett, but also Alzheimer’s indications, for which blarcamesine is being evaluated. Regarding their Rett strategy, the lack of trial primary endpoint cohesion vs LAVENDER is questionable – however may still support a 2024e approval.
Valuation. PT set at a discount to SOTP valuation of $27.43/sh. $18.29/sh risked PT comprises: $8.97/sh for DAYBUE across Rett & FXS; and $9.32/share for NNZ-2591 in four focus NDDs; with additional $9.15/sh upside for NNZ-2591 expansion (not currently in PT). Unrisked $100/sh."
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Wilsons target $18.29 and summary
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