Greetings al y'all Fantastic weather in melbourne, sun and frolicks, yum
Wink Waffle
I had one of the best birthdays ever, last frinday, and many thanks to all the well wishers. I have a feeling that this year will be an exemplary year in the life of Wink, particularly on the trading front. Have also resolved to get out a bit more, as finally I reckon i've got enough grounding under my belt that I can relax and let the trading do it's stuff with a strong base and confidence behind my trades, and thus less stress or need tofind the things that suit my trading style and keep the equity curve pumping.
The system works, refining will always occur and I can now enjoy my pursuit of cycles and time and other interesting market stuff while generating an income.
I also need to get back into the physical side of things as sitting in front of a screen 18 hours a day is taking its toll, and I can't wait to get the blood pumping and this hunched and cramped bod back to the stringy ranginess it prefers.
Might see less posting from me as well, though 'tis my intention to write this waffle on Sundays as consistantly as I can, make morning contributions to the Daily Trading diaries thread, and poke my head into the FOREX forum when I can. my day job needs my attention thouhg, but Annual leave beckons, and I can have another crack at the full time trading then, hopefully with a better understanding of the lifestyle required to go with it... eg healthy leaving, exercise and getting the hell away from the markets occassionly, lol.
HC Waffle
Bit of tussling going on it seems, but still a lot lighter than a couple of months ago, and big ups to the mods and the work they have done to keep this place, me beloved hotcopper, relatively light.
Seems like a few of the old heads are drifitng back here to XJO and I am rapt and looking forward to nore learnings to come, plus some new names are pulling up the confidence to post... keep it up guys and dolls. This is a forum... so get out there and forumise.
trading waffle
W000t... I'd be saying that the market participants are lining up now, I had a nicer feeling on price over the last week, less jerky to my mind. Big lessons in the previous month or so and without a doubt SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE is a biggy.
The jumps and bumps around areas of historicalupport/resistance were undeniable, and long may such action continue.. finding those points aint so eaasy for this little black duck, am learning and earning though.
I've started playing with the stochastic oscillator and big ups specifically to JD and Treggs for pointing out its scalping goodness. I am a little reticent to talk much about it here, as I do not want to steal their thunder. However, I gots to say, that i used the good ole Stoch in trading for the first time on Friday. My first attempt almost got my bottom chewed off as the market had a bit of a laugh at me, however the second and subsequant worked a treat... The difference after the first attempt? I applied the same knowledge that I had gained through studying and trading successfuly through the MACD (which is in itself an oscillator), and it all came good. Without my prior experience, there is a great chance I would have been royally smacked, too easy to jump in too early and exit too early. Ultimately though, my beloved MACD is still the eye opener for me, the stoch is another tool and when I grow up I look forward to trading indicator free to a greater extent, without the need for interpreting price... after all these indicators are all just modifications of the information contained in price and time.
On another note, I upped my contract size a bit and wrecked my head a little doing it, particularly for the positive trades where larger figures, cash wise caused me to jump out before runs were even close to finished. Yeah I know, that's a bit silly, and I may need to redepoly an old trading tool I have used, my trading sock, to get out of this habit.
My trading sock is an old sports sock that I have in the past hung over my trading platform screen so I cannot see the dollar figure of my position and must trade from price and indicator action on the charts alone... I used it earlier on to train myself away from watching the dollar figures of positions, as ultimately, I am trading the movement of price, not how much money I make or lose. For those who need to know... the sock is clean, though battered.
A further note... After some experimentation and research, I have found it is the length and shape of the sock that is important here and I cannot stress that enough.
Orright Enuff of the philosophical mumbo jumbo... time for chats about the Whooshka, some charts and hardcore analysis.
The Whooshka
Further findings on the MACD, the Whooshka and the Whooshka extreme divergence targetting methodology:
The Whooshka is Dead, long live the Whooshka... Initially I named the Whooshka such as in many cases it herealded a rapid move.. In all reality the "Rapid Move" does not always occur, and what is really happening is that price is experiencing a desire to turn which often eventuates... As such, the Whooshka is really a misnomer, and should be termed something like:
"A system for determining the high probability of change in price direction based on serial divergence in the MACD sub-indicators, namely the histogram and Moving Averages"
But that is too damn long so I will keep referring to the whole kerfuffle as the Whooshka. For a brief outline of the Whooska I ahve the following document (pdf) on the web, initially posted on my birthday thread and now available Sans post history Here:
Something of great joy to me relates to my last waffle post. I mentioned again the targetting methodology that I am trying to refine.
The guts of which is thus:
It would appear that a legitimate target for price is shown by price levels historical to the point that the first Whooshka Signal Divergence between price and MACD Histograms occurs.
That is... Once the two Whooshka signals have been identified, and price has turned and begun its new trend, the trend might continue back to near the price point where the first signal, histogram to price divergence, occurred. In fact it appears that price actually goes to the point of next support (previously resistance) prior to where the extreme histogram bar occurred in the histogram divergence. Divergence in relation to the MACD histograms is defined as a move of price opposite to a move in histograms. Where divergence begins is where the peaks or bar is at an extreme compared with all other bars over the divergence.
Last waffle post, I put up the following chart:
The thin blue line cross hairs gave a downside target of around 3516 (IGMarkets).
And guess what You Guys!!!!!!
We Got It!!! Looky looky!!:
Unfortunately, we then preceded to smash through it...
Which kinda blew up my theory that the targetted end of one Whooshka could be the turn point for the beginning of another. However you can see from the above chart that the price level DID become strong support eventually.
Now a couple of other things I would like to point out in the above chart.
Observe the thick brown dotted lines on the MACD... these lines are the exact same length. That length is the height of the MACD Mavs above the zero line.
Something I have noticed and thanks to observing and trading on the Stochastic oscillator, there is something in this... My current conjecture is that a move downside or upside is not complete until the MACD Mavs have reached an equal distance either above or below the zero line as reached on their first extreme
Just a theory peeps, just a theory, but here's a clue.. I started looking at this properly on Friday, already had a vague suspicion about it prior, but Stochastic movements alerted me a little, and ummm.. seems to work on the lower time frames I trade on...
Shhhhhhhhh be vewy quiet, we're hunting targets, lol
As you can prolly gather, I am getting a little tired now and need to stretch and eat.
As I've posted around HC in the last couple of days, I am fairly longside oriented on the XJO at the mo... and many other T/A ers have posted good work on this scenario, short term... I have nothing to add to their good work. As mentioned in a lot of my previous posts, I am looking at an upside target of 4100/4000... though based on kinda volatile price where this target occurs it is hard to be certain.
(20min delay)