Australia's total summer grain crop production in 2008/09 (just harvested) is estimated to have fallen by 11 per cent to 3.5 million tonnes, due mainly to a moderation in sorghum yields.
The figures are revealed by Soft Commodities Analyst, Luke Mathews, in a rundown of the ABARE June 09 Australian Crop Report.
Total winter crop production for 2009/10 (just planted) is forecast at 35 million tonnes, a five per cent increase on 2008/09. The total winter crop area is estimated at 22 million hectares, which is one per cent larger than last year.
All winter crop estimates for the southern wheat belt are extremely contingent on good in-crop rains due to low soil moisture reserves, the report says. The long term outlook is mixed.
The 2009/10 Australian wheat crop forecast is 22 million tonnes, up slightly from last year and above the prior seven-year average of 19.5 million tonnes.
Improved yields in southern NSW, Victoria and South Australia are seen as supporting production. A decline in Western Australian production is expected, due to a return to more normal seasonal conditions after last year’s big crop.
The increase in wheat production is expected to be associated with an increase in exports.
Total barley production for 2009/10 is tipped at 7.7 million tonnes, up from 6.8 million tonnes. ABARE expects a slight fall in area but yields are tipped to rise on improved seasonal conditions in south-east Australia.
Total canola production is forecast to dip slightly to 1.7million tonnes.
The Abare crop report can be downloaded at http://www.abare.gov.au/interactive/09acr_june/
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