The Commonwealth Government's Treasury loves creating 'hollow logs' (as in absurdly conservative predictions that give governments a lot of future 'wriggle room').
Look at its thermal coal forecastfrom 'The Australian'):
"...Treasury has undercooked its iron price forecast for the fourth year running as it assumes the price of the metal will more than halve over the coming year to $US55 a tonne. This offers one of the biggest hollow logs in the Budget papers.It has taken a more bearish view on thermal coal forecasting it falls from $US320 to $US60 per tonne. Met coal, the mainstay of steel production, is forecast to fall from $US512 a tonne to $US130 a tonne. Oil is expected to remain elevated above $US100 a barrel..."
NHC Price at posting:
$3.40 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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from 'The Australian'):
(20min delay)