I plan to peel off 10% of holding periodically over the months depending on what coal is doing.
Right now it looks like a commodity short-squeeze/blow-off-top is in progress, which tend to reverse just as quick, however the noises coming out of coal miner management are saying this will be stronger for longer.
All I know is that thermal coal is up x5 in a year and NHC is just more than x2, suggesting disbelief in the commodity price being maintained.
Normally if coal is x2 the equities should be x4-5.
So IMHO NHC is dirt cheap and I'm HODL. I have still sold nothing, having cancelled first sale offers at 199 and again at 251c because coal just kept ramping. Might sell my first 10% at 280c or 320c, or sooner if coal squeeze fizzles.
Goldman just put out this update FWIW (I like that 13% divi for FY22):NHC (Neutral, A$2.7/sh TP, 19% TSR)
We revise our 2022/2023 EPS by 8%/5% on higher coal prices for the quarter. Our NAV is up 3% to A$2.4/sh and our 12-month TP is up 4% to A$2.7/sh (from A$2.6/sh).
We remain Neutral on:
Valuation: The stock is trading at c. 1.0xNAV (A$2.4/sh) at our long-run thermal of US$70/t (real), with 11% upside to our TP, lower on a relative basis than our Buy-rated coverage (and coal sector peers).
Attractive FCF yield and capital returns outlook: NHC's Bengalla mine in NSW is one of the lowest cost thermal coal operations in Australia. NHC is trading on a FY22/23 FCF yield of 38%/13% in our base case. NHC will have net cash (+ leases) by the end of FY22 (July) on our estimates. We forecast a dividend yield of 13%/7% for FY22-23.
Acquisition/M&A risk: NHC stated at their recent FY21 results that they continue to look for M&A opportunities focusing on long life high quality thermal coal resources that is value accretive from day 1.
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6 | 21411 | 4.470 |
14 | 69717 | 4.460 |
8 | 49289 | 4.450 |
4 | 35095 | 4.440 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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