If nothing else it is good to see the Arq thread come to life, 7th most posts on HotCopper for the day, it hasn't been there for a while! Even if we do now have the good the bad and the ugly.
Personally, I regard PC43's posts as genuine and informative and given in good faith. Things change as the drill goes down and things unfold. No one really knows until the drill bit reaches depth but overall, it's looking OK.
What we may have just been through in the upper section of this well are source rocks that may feed into the Stokes bay updip where the oil and gas may have accumulated. It now seems clear the oil and gas will only be trapped in the dips or inclusions similar to that theorised by the CSIRO in the nearby Browse Basin. We are about to enter one now and another one in Stokes bay. All the conditions seem to be right for hydrocarbon traps so far and they are likely to have gas caps with some oil underneath.
http://www.dpr.csiro.au/ourcapabilities/petroleumgeoscience/organicgeochemistry/projects/browsebasin/assets/documents/APPEA2005BrowseBasin.pdf
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