Bursting property bubbles: Sales crash first, then prices, then GDP
Examples from Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. A work in progress, by Gavin R. Putland. Last updated May 6, 2010
In my multi-country survey of recent housing crashes, I reported that ?a fall in turnover is a leading indicator of a fall in prices, and the lead time is usually one to two quarters,? and that (in the absence of massive fiscal stimulus!) recession begins within 9 quarters of the fall in turnover, or 8 quarters of the fall in prices.
