with this swine flu you would think bta , page-4

The main issue with BTA is the ability to generate consistant cash flows from Relenza (+ LANI later). In the past cash flow has been very patchy... so the share price has reflected 1 off wins rather than a function of regular cash flows. ie. pure spec...

However, there a 3 things in BTA`s medium to longer term favour 1) Tamiflu resistance is becoming a serious concern ->leading to a reweighting of orders in favour of Relenza, 2) the difficulty to contain potential pandemics is burning anti-viral stocks big time, requiring replenishment - I think the original assumption that 4-6 months lead time for vaccines is ok has been shown to be too optimistic, 3) BTA has a post Relenza pipeline, LANI, so there is potentially life beyond Relenza.

My target is $2.80-$3.00 in the next 6-9 months... no special valuation techiques, just gut feel... so very dodgy and you need to do your own research.

Volatility will be high so if you have BTA as a significant part of your portfolio ya gunna feel it :-(