AEV 0.00% 0.6¢ avenira limited

Wonarah Phosphate mine, page-167

  1. 12,161 Posts.
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    *Reposted after proof reading and amendments made*

    By the way you can speak freely on the forum so long as it is caveated and or referenced and you remain professional about it. I suspect you can do that whereas many who post here cannot and that is why that perception exists. Also the AEV forum is not alone with this dilemna, it has become endemic in Hotcopper over the past few years.

    I offer no counter argument on the basis of the narrative you provided other than there are plenty of junior miners with low ball management who sit on what they have and the entity goes nowhere. They have been the basis of the low end of the ASX (as it existed in its various manifestations) since well in to last century, some go back as far as NL companies. BHP and RIO had 50% equity (or 50% control through other means) in a plethora of junior miners "just in case" in WA, QLD and SA mainly. Most came to nothing for a range of reasons. Some broke away and became successful in themselves. Many drop-outs from these companies wander this vast country looking for their "gold mine"...most die penniless and very sunburnt. One might suggest AEV is the modern version with shareholders naively funding them.

    In Australia for the most part the resource nor its reserve are relevant, the management and the abilty of the team in place to unlock value and mobilise a revenue stream that is cashflow positive are what counts. There are some outstanding examples on the ASX as we speak. AEV is not one of them and currently does not have the capability, the skills or the knowledge on how to unlock value hence the reason for the chagrined few in these threads who are more aware of information than they have disclosed. The rest can't face reality and post material to subvert the recognition of the risk and point to a huge body of phosphate and constantly nod their head like a cat with the parvo virus.

    From an investing and trading perspective it isn't pretty. Let me show you.

    The share price is and has been declining since it spiked to 3.0 cents a few months ago and many got in at or not far under that thinking it was going to run but it didn't and had no basis for a rise due to the incumbent management. More importantly the market capitalisation is now at a value where it was stated this is the true value of AEV absent of any commercial development or economic tension (e.g. a takeover bid) back in 2019. It was stated as being in the $AUD6.0m - $AUD16.0m range with a preferred value (mid-point) of $AUD9.0m and we are currently at $AUD12.0m. Let us assume there is some value in the gold punt they play with.

    The contiunual capital raising has now put AEV in a position where its total number of fully paid ordinary shares are in excess of 1 billion and yet the trading volumes are miniscule. Back when the price rushed to 3.0 cents there was just over 110m shares traded (slightly over 10% of the issued capital at the time) on one day and since that faux spike the trading volumes have been receeded to nothing over 10m in a day (slightly less than 1% of the issued capital today).

    So put ALL that aside there is one underlying issue that has not been tabled - There is a $AUD3.0m Convertible Note that expires at the end of this calendar year and the interest payments have been accummulated. That Convertible Note has security over the infamous phosphate tenements everyone keeps spouting on about. This very same Convertible Note is held by the largest shareholder on the register with around 10% of the issued capital.

    If you do not understand the gravity of the above three points or the consequence of their existence then you are operating at extreme risk. I hope you don't have too many and can afford to take the risk.

    Good luck.

    P.S. If you want external reference points to any of the about three points just ask.
 
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