I am not sure if I can give you a short concise answer to you Chance of Success, But I will give you a bit of back ground and some of my opinions. Which may at times differ from the official Linc PR machine.
You must remember we are talking about "prospective resources" not reserves or anything know.
Linc has been advised by Gustavson and co that conventional and unconventional oil could/should be found found in the Boorthanna trough. So far no holes have been drilled in the Boorthanna trough, though Arck #1 and a few others have drilled around the edge of it.
Linc's new drilling program aims to drill the Boorthanna trough, and find oil and gas in the organic rich shales they found in Arck #1 but buried at a much deep depth. These Stuart Range shales in my opinion will be a shoe in, as they are very uniform across the basin, and drilling it when it is deeper, should show positive results.
The Boorthanna formation, is a little more variable but once again should be cooked nicely, as long as they can some nice thick marine shales,
Now, the vast majority of the claimed resources lie in the Pre-Permian. This is the area where Linc's previous drilling was off the most. I don't think they hit any horizon they expected to. and these were at much shallower depths. To me this is where the odds lengthen as these Pre-Permian horizons are the least understood, but hold the greatest potential
There is also some expectations of conventional oil. The first of these will explored on the second well. Up to this point in time, there has barely been a sniff of gas or drop on oil ever found in the Arck Basin. So for me for this campaign to be a success, a few things need to happen. They may sound under whelming, but I just feel that things have been over hyped for where they are in their exploration program.
1/They need to drill to 2000 to 2500m without any hint of hitting granite or basement.
2/Need to have plenty of background gas during drilling
3/Hit their depths on prognosis, to confirm they understand the area
Now with these points mention, I am hoping they find plenty of shale, organic rick and cooked to above 450 deg C. I would be really wrapped if PB found his flowing barrels, but I would put this way down on the probability list.
With the lack of interest, in the drilling of these wells, I don't think the general market are expecting much more than me.
LNC Price at posting:
99.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
