BHP 2.10% $43.32 bhp group limited

So let's try to do the maths to establish some parameters.WPL...

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    So let's try to do the maths to establish some parameters.

    WPL has approx 1B shares and at recent price about AUD$22 gives market cap of $22B.
    BHP has approx 5B shares (I believe when all jurisdictions added- someone please check) and at recent price of AUD$54 has market cap of $270B.
    Let"s assume:
    1. BHP Oil&Gas valuation for the transaction is $20B (assumption - we need some good info here).
    2. Woodside valuation for the transaction is $22B (current market cap).
    Then it is almost a merger of equals: BHP shareholders end up owning 47.6% ($20B/$42B) of combined entity WoodB.
    This would mean BHP shareholders would get nearly 1 Woodside share (actually 0.91) for every 5 BHP shares they currently have.
    So for every BHP share a BHP shareholder currently has they would get 0.182 Woodside shares (ie $4 value at WoodB sp of $22), and expect BHP sp to fall by a similar amount.
    Not a capital gains event!
    Probably would take 6 months to get all the approvals (incl from Woodside shareholders, and I expect that this would be a key hurdle so it will need to look sweet fro them).
    Would not need BHP shareholder vote as it is less than 10% of the business.

    Those are the parameters as I look at them initially. Happy to get views on the above and any other issues/matters to consider.

    As an investor I have "looked at" Woodside a few times over the last two decades and have not bought generally because it has looked a bit expensive. I note that I could have bought WPL for most of that time at $35 plus or minus 10%. (I note that smarter people than me could have traded in and out of WPL several times over that period and made very good money). So I am not anti-WPL (and indeed it is one of Australia's great business achievements). So getting a share of WoodB that reflects its current sp of $22 and fair value of BHP Oil&Gas assets could be a good investment, particularly as I assume there would be business synergies.
 
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Last
$43.32
Change
0.890(2.10%)
Mkt cap ! $219.6B
Open High Low Value Volume
$42.62 $43.35 $42.58 $335.8M 7.789M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 13 $43.31
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$43.33 1125 1
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