A few months ago I never would have thought I'd have a chance to...

A few months ago I never would have thought I'd have a chance to top-up again at these prices. The share price is dropping seemingly each day, yet when I check my CommSec account for Woodside's forecasted earnings, this is what I find:



It seems the anticipated profit and dividend for 2021 and 2022 has been re-rated upwards constantly for the past three months -- at the same time the share price has been falling. According to FN Arena, the share price is an average 22% below consensus with most brokers rating it a "Buy". Morningstar and Goldman Sachs (not included in FN Arena's broker estimates) have WPL as a very ambitious $30+. I'm looking forward to re-investing the dividends over the next couple of years and waiting for the share price to catch up with WPL's actual performance. We are perfectly placed to exploit the increased demand for gas in Asia this decade.

We know from the November and December gains that a turn-around can occur very quickly. I remember at that time looking at Exxon Mobil's share price at around US$31 and seeing how quickly it jumped from multi-year lows, to a 12 month high of almost US$60. I think it's Ace Boy who is of the opinion the market may be shocked at just how big next quarter's profit will be. It seems the brokers are fully expecting it (judging by the target prices quoted), but I can't see it anywhere near being factored into the share price at current levels. I agree with Ace Boy's comments here over the past weeks. Perhaps the half-yearly announcement will be what WPL needs to see a sudden re-rating upwards as the profitabilty of Woodside becomes apparent to all.

Long term, Woodside and Santos seem to follow the Betashares FUEL ETF share price which tracks Exxon, Chevron, BP and the other super-majors. In the past three months we're massively under-performing it. This voting-machine-type situation always reverses itself in due course; and we have the already-earned gas sale profits at a three month lag to oil prices still to be announced.

On a side note, I am wondering whether Woodside has considered changing its name from "Woodside Petroleum" to "Woodside Energy", or "Woodside Gas and Oil"? I note that Lynas Corporation changed its name to Lynas Rare Earths recently. A lot of companies added ".com" to their names during the internet stock boom many years ago. A change of perception could be almost as good as reality. Our future is in gas and it wouldn't be misleading to have the as our company name going forward -- especially with a focus on hydrogen energy as well. Everyone knows that "Petroleum" is dirty whereas "energy" is clean and green