that depends on whether one is short term trading or investing.I...

that depends on whether one is short term trading or investing.

I invest.

Agreed though that exactly because the underlying business is a commodity, future earnings and dividends will jump around according to the underlying commodity price.

Having said this, these future earnings and dividend expectations are based on the markets assumptions of commodity prices two years out. ie the future commodity prices are then backed back in to the future earnings and dividend expectations.

So extending on this logic, a buyer at this point who is an investor, is betting against the market. An investor buying here, is basically saying, no I don't agree with future pricing of the commodities, I expect future pricing of the commodities to be much higher than forecast.

Notice I make no reference to future share price estimates, just to the accumulated market knowledge of the commodity price estimate that is translated into the future earnings.

So given these future earnings and dividends estimates, based on the current market knowledge of future commodity prices, in my opinion, the numbers don't stack to buy.

Simple.

As Buffett says: wait for the right pitch. The pitch is not right, don't swing.... patience... patience...

Again an investors viewpoint, not a short term traders view point.

Traders have different ways to make or loss money.