1. Scarborough & Pluto T2 online & commissioned 2026 which...

1. Scarborough & Pluto T2 online & commissioned 2026 which includes cash flow not currently on books.
2. Sangomar online 2024 which includes cash flow currently not on books.
3. Both can & quite possibly will add a further 15% to bottom line in free cash flow accretive according to last report.
4. JERA sale point adds additional free cash flow for coffers, dont know of many companies on the asx apart from S32 that account for such a premium to add to already cash on hand.
5. Current net debt possibly going forward lowest in Australasia which frees up further free cash flow previously unreported.
6. Saudis as reported will require to balance their terms of trade deficit at $96.20 per barrel.
As a foot note having been in the region, worked and traded in the region some 40 years ago they will do "ANYTHING" to save face and keep the populous under strict rule. Apart of this process is to maintain power
On June 1st this year we will possibly see a further reduction in production excluding Angola how ever they seem to be heavied by the IMF & ECB although i have no idea as to why or what the ECB have anything to do with anything apart from being apart of the Globalised structure of third world politics.
TTF trading hub prices in the EU fell 24.4 % from Aug 2023 to $8.10 a M (MMBtu) which is completely unsustainable. EU just need 1 bad winter & they are in shit street.
Capex has fallen by 51% YTD and so we see futures TTF prices will average $9.45 in 2024 decreasing to $8.73 in 2029 as US export capacity is expected to double, but where after 2023 futures lay with such a decrease in Capex is anybodies guess work.
I believe the market is expecting a goldilocks scenario of cheap fossil fuels but neglect to see the reduction in Capex and the operating income will rise or at least meet large supplies with an even bigger reduction in supply coming online due to such reductions in Capex.
WDS is void of this.
What i have seen over more than 40 years of my trading life is the absolute neglect of even considering "CAPEX" into any formula.
My mentor drummed this into me as a teen while he started me trading with Iran as far back as the Eilat-Ashkelon pipe line. Paul Frankle knew back then it was doomed to failure as far back as 1956.
WDS at around $8 and slowly being reduced as a cost per barrel is almost unmatched, even the Saudis are not anywhere near that, how WDS do it is nothing short of brilliance to the current Management in which very few give them credit for.
I could go on & on but in short, knowing exactly how much money they will make and what they will pay as a DIV going forward at a particular date...who knows....but will it be more than what it is now....probably.....
Thats how i see it anyway.
Of course, we all pin a tail on a donkey in the scheme of things from time to time and hope for the best.
"CAPEX" is what i look at in all mathematics that i do as i have found it usually determines the future pricing mechanisms of any given commodity be it soft or hard along with many other material additives like politics, religion, weather and so on and so forth.
A long winded rambling to a question that is almost impossible to answer.
RDD