I want to own this stock again. Here is the issue I see:OIl...

I want to own this stock again. Here is the issue I see:



OIl market is really well supplied at the moment. Despite what it's in the headlines, the U.S is producing a lot of oil (Funny thing that, war anyone?)

I think there is a huge war premium priced in the oil and gas markets right now (20%ish). Looks lit unwound a bit again today. Could change overnight though.

Economic growth is really not that strong, and China remains relatively weak. I don't see any upside to oil and gas prices in the short to medium term and think most stocks in energy are probably fair value given that outlook.

News out of China today was pretty much that things are ticking on relatively ok. China's plan to delever their financial system seems to be progressing well which means further stimulus is unlikely. As a consequnce we are likely to see the premium in Iron Ore disappear, as well Coking coal and energy. I was really perplexed by the markets response to WHC results on Friday, but the rest of the pieces of that puzzle appeared today.

I would expect earnings expectations are far too high across the board and we are likely to see a correction in markets (Growth and AI worst hit).