Welcome new posters. Long Term watchers or soon to be new holders on the register; please ensure everyone has done their own research. Research doesn’t just mean flicking through the last two pages of a website forum :)…sorry, but I just getting that vibe off a couple of recent posts.
Unprofessional to release after market: I did laugh at that….but respect your opinion…why I laughed though….
Market on Sydney time, Asset in Tanzania, Office in Perth….so I guess the process of such an important update would be required to be notified back to the Tanzanian Office (maybe even Tanzanian Government (or TPDC) before they can release….some 10 hours’ time difference….? My guess is a trader comment. This will have stopped the opportunistic trader…it’s a level playing field now. It is very professional to release news as soon as it can be released, regardless of when that works out to be before market, during or after close. ( it was probably afternoon in Perth :)
With the above concluded that everyone has done research….Here’s my view…
SWE has been sold down from 27 cents on what can really be described as light volume. We saw the initial rise to 27 cents on the back of many days of multiple million share turnovers….with nowhere near that volume being sold on the way down…..I have always been of the opinion that recovery will be swift.
We have no gaps in the price to be worried about for the chartists.
I have also said the announcements Dr D puts out are not hyped, but the information is there. I can only recommend that everyone reads the latest again…slowly :), and consider each point….
1/4 of Kilombero surveyed.
The success of this 1/4 . (better than I could have hoped for)
A few things stand out to me…..Kilombero runs north to south.
The 1/4 that has been done and brought about this truly positive result also runs north to south….and we have 60kms more we can investigate.
I believe this is why Dr D, has pointed out the importance of the basin lengths, fault length and width….so it can be geographically aligned…… Letting us know it probably continues…...I get support on this assumption from his comments (see quote below)
Remember, for the most part, (and I certainly am not), we are not geologists….so we need to be smart about interpretations…..And don’t forget….others learned fellows will know the exact importance of this announcement.
The referral to Tullow and Africa Oil provides the pointers to similar plays….Thick Neogene sediments = Higher Oil probability. = Multiple possible payzones.
To understand the importance of have Thick Neogene, I can only point you to the Africa Oil/ Tullow announcements….This, in my view, was one of the first indicators which saw Africa Oils momentum commence its rise.
Again we see multiple traps and possible DHI’s at several levels = Multiple possible pay zones.
Also Large Structural high and huge area.
“Quote” Dr. David Mestres Ridge (CEO) said, “The seismic work programme has touched less than 20km in a potentially hydrocarbon-bearing basin and though more work is required to process and interpret the data we are very happy with the initial findings. The combination of sediment age, structure, and trapping geometries that are similar to those seen in the working basins in Uganda and Kenya, along with a number of possible flat spots, all go to make the Kilombero basin an exciting prospect, and these continued positive results coming from the seismic programme underscore our strong faith in the region. The joint venture is now reviewing how best to continue to determine the full potential of the area. Polaris, our seismic contractors have done a sterling job operating in an area with difficult terrain and will now move to the Pangani Licence to cover the two remaining Tanzanian basins identified in 2012.” “End Quote”
So now we have to start piecing it all together.
All our seismic to date have provided strong asset potential. Multiple large structures!
We still have 2 basins at Pagani to go on this 2D programme.
A long time ago, I mentioned after reading about the migration paths of Tanzania, that gas moved offshore, and oil moved onshore….These results (and all the off shore gas results) seem to confirm the likely hood, thus increasing our potential. Again noting Kilosa-Kilombero, runs north/south which provides the higher probability that we will hit a migration path(s), which appears to be what we are seeing.
More recently I also posted that I thought our value to be severely undervalued…based on what we knew at time of the post…now add this new info in….and surely the market will be influenced…I hope :)
Available shares limited….we only need I commit buyer….wants a few million shares and away we will go.
Perception: (Not to quote value, context intent only) 20cents to $2.00 = x 10 $2.00 to $6.00= x 2
Or 20 cents to $6.00 = x30
I am also placing a positive for the International Financial Support given the success of Tullow’s and Africa Oils cash risings/issues which we all know where staggeringly successful….not forgetting other regional corporate activity prices recently.
We still have a lot of news which could come in the short term:
Eyasi-Wembere License announcement
CPR report for Kilosa-Kilomero
Pagani x2 initial siesmics (or maybe one in 6-7 weeks)
CPR report for Pagani
Zambia Licenses x 0,1,2 or 3 ( I only added $1.00 value so far for Zambia) = 83% interest in each issued license.
12B Kenya, Tullow to start survey early 2014 (everyone should know the potential by now for 12B…the hopes anyway)
Initial results of Kenya 12B survey (maybe 3-4 weeks after starting?)
New company update presentation anytime (but in line with prospective for SOGTL listing on EGM DSE) – Couldn’t see them not including this new information about K-K.
Actual listing of SOGTL and with luck…..a successful listing (Already $1m + pre-IPO interest publicised) – Local knowledge investment.
Company plans for the future…investigating Eyasi (if signed), further investigation of K-K.
(Spec) At 30cents+ Options can start to be exercised….providing more cash.
TheDhon: So glad you’re still in…would have hate to see you miss the developing opportunities.
Fitza: I hope your OEL and our partner in Tanzania do see some positives, especially after being let down by BHP….this news certainly won’t hurt them. They are our partner in Tanzania, so not sure why you got moderated…maybe it was context of what you said (didn’t see it)…but don’t sweat it. Maybe OEL would fund a Wildcat :) in K-K :)
Borrks: I think you hit the nail on the head….Our management are building a company!
If tomorrow only provides a rise of 1 or 2 cents…that will surprise me. :) Given sold down volumes…We might open at 25 at move up from there?....
I certainly won’t be selling knowing what is potentially on the horizon with SWE (above list of expected/possible news/timeframes of the list...Its just all going to come bang, bang, bang...
The BIG PICTURE has changed significantly with this news.
SWE Price at posting:
19.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
