My own experience: could have done better, could have done worse. Couple of trades (previously) meant that when I gave back a bit recently I didn't feel too sore about it. Got rid of half mid-4's and bought them back recently (2.3) but now it appears to be stuck in the mud a bit. Averaging everything out I am still slightly out of pocket on MAY, but not to the point that my wife will disown me (although there is always hope).
My view: somewhere around here is the floor. Somewhere. Can't see it going to a 50 mill market cap (you are implying a share price circa 1.5 cents). Net cash is currently $12.387m, and the total available funding $39.802m, with Sonangol receipts dribbling in (in accordance with JV agreement) during the quarter. The next drilling programme is expected to commence in Q4/24 (Q2 of FY25, being October-December this year: ref Appendix 1B, note 8.8.1, 11th July 2024), and 1B production costs are being financed seperate to the existing cash balances and cash burn. So its a viable opportunity for some time to come, and if they can flow nicely out of 1B we will see a decent finance flow come through. For AP, its more about timing that luck (despite what some would have you believe). Resource estimates are solid (backed by McDaniel's assessments) so the current EV is at a huge discount due to the markets risk assessment (risk discount applied), and this will unwind progressively over the coming 3 to 6 months. So my view is that the base is "somewhere" around here, and will progressively see the SP climb back to somewhere circa 5 cents by the first quarter of 2025. From there - who knows. It will depend on the A3 clean-up, the financial structure of 1B production (and the roll-out of additional wells), and the ability to build from there. Wildcard is if A3 cleans-up ok, and we could potentially be back on the road to a much higher SP.
So with that in mind - happy to accumulate a tad more around current levels, and sit back and wait. If I pop $50k on to the main board I may make a 10% return over the coming 6 months, whereas here I might double it. Yes, the volatility is higher, but for $50k profit am I ok risking $10-$20k. Yep.
Regards
Kit
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