What's happening guys, will we get the oppies off the line?
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Well, a big week for BAS. A high of 11.5, just below the 12 of oppie conversion. Volume - very high on Tuesday on day of announcement, and then losing steam - is that expected?
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So many new posters. So many posters old stoppers who stopped posting here. Last several weeks I was trying to get the guys up and running for Tino to do something about oppies. Few years back, I was posting daily here. I now many posters first hand. We develop an affinity.
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So what is happening? Some say wonders. Some think - pump. Where is the truth? Somewhere in between. BAS has been in doldrums for last couple of years. And there is a reason. Tino promised so much, that he will move BAS from a low player to mid player. And what did he achieve? He moved BAS from a low player to the lowest player. Forget about all the pumps for a moment, this is the reality. All old timers will agree to that, except who don't like me.
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So lets look at current scenario. If you read thru the posts, we are going to the moon. Everyone buying oppies are going to mint money. Is that right? Lets look at stats. More than 95% of oppies expire worthless. Why is that? When they are issued, they are so attractive. When they are nearing expiry, they are the worst thing one can hold, That's stats.
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So what do I think? Based on trading pattern, and especially oppies play in their death time (last couple of months), very high chance they will expire worthless. Byron - there was a buyer at 0.5c, did you exit? Sadly, the buyer realised the reality and got under the desk. So my gut feel, oppies will expire worthless. My gut feel, stocks price will fall back towards 7/8c - unless, and I mean unless, there is a new announcement. Tino has played the Pied Piper for long. Not many are going to fall for him. At least not those know him. new punters - welcome to Mr G play. Sometimes even when we are ramping, we try to be subtle, but Mr G, a unique character, and I mean it - a really unique character. I will never rely on that character.
So what may happen next week? My honest opinion. Hope I am wrong. Oppies will expire worthless. Mr G and Mr X, have been supporting the price from 6 and 7c - its not based on fundamentals. They will lose steam. And prices as well. But this may be a time for Tino for finally to make a statement, that he is still there, in BAS, in gas, condensate etc. Sadly not convincing. But he may give it a go. A pump statement. All old timers with whom I have connected before, next announcement please, it may be your last chance. Make the most of it. My gut feel is, there may not be an announcement, before that ..., so make most of it.
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