Interesting to see serial downrampers Potgut, Sam Charlotte, and Googs highlighting the enviro approval of Senex projects as some sort of negative for PEP11. Do these posters have open buy orders below current levels that they are hoping to fill? I can't rule it out becuase the probability of Senex gas arriving in NSW or Victoria is ZERO, here's why:-
Atlas is notable because it was the first acreage release that contained a covenant that any discovery is quarantined for Queensland Domestic supply only.
I note that 8 GSA's have been executed with local manufacturers, it's likely already predominantly accounted for.
If any Senex project gas is legally able to leave Queensland it will be heading to Korea, POSCO didn't JV with Gina to prop up NSW and Victoria, they will export it
Even if the Senex JV wanted to sell this gas into NSW, the pipeline to NSW is currently operating at 116% of capacity. I checked this with a technical expert and it was explained to me that you can push a pipeline above nameplate to a certain extent but when you do, the operation loses efficiency and increases risk. You can't push it above the approved safety case so this pipeline is likely at it's ceiling.
Gina is not a charity, the transmission distances are longer, so cost of Senex gas will exceed the cost of PEP11 gas by a significant factor. This was a key point made by Orica recently, NSW doesn't just need gas, it needs affordable gas. If the price is prohibitive, like the PKIT price, these guys will just shut their plants and either relocate to cheaper locations, or import instead. Loss of jobs, loss of government revenue. Lose/lose.
So when these downrampers are spinning the Senex Environmental approval (the rest of the operation was approved over 2 years ago) as some sort of saviour, see them for they are. JMO. DYOR. GLTAH
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