The reason it went up then in 2021, was because it was known...

The reason it went up then in 2021, was because it was known that the decision would then be with Keith Pitt (closer to a favourable decision maker).

However, in this case if it gets rejected this time, it would mean it could be another 582-1120days away from yet another decision.

16/12/2021 Scomo rejected it,
01/06/2022 Asset Energy filed their Federal Court case,
14/02/2023 Consent orders were made,
Further information was submitted...
17/10/2023 the status changed to Joint Authority for Decision,
18/09/2024 Husic issued his statement on PEP-11,

This was 1120days... which would mean Thursday, 3 February 2028 could be the next date to look forward to after a potential rejection lol...

That was based on the Federal Government conceding, imagine how long it would have taken if they fought the case through trial.

If we just look at how long the Joint Authority had taken this time from consent orders to Husic's statement: that was 582days... 15 August 2026.

Even if you don't like the 582 to 1120 days range, then just look at all the completed NOPTA applications post renewal. The quickest was in 2016 which was almost 8months (keep in mind in 2016 they didn't have to go to Federal Court).


Figure 1: graph based on information from https://public.neats.nopta.gov.au/Opggs/Title/81775e2a-8d46-47f7-91c9-de6f10feca90 and from 23/01/2020 to 16/12/2021 (Scomo decision) and from 14/02/2023 (Consent orders) to 18/09/2024 (Husic issued his statement on PEP-11) [understandably Husic has not yet made a formal decision].

	Suspension, Extension and Variation (Husic)	582
1	Suspension, Extension and Variation (Scomo)	693
2	Suspension and Extension	577
3	Variation	238
4	Suspension and Extension	238
5	Suspension	273

Table 1: data from Figure 1 graph from https://public.neats.nopta.gov.au/Opggs/Title/81775e2a-8d46-47f7-91c9-de6f10feca90 and from 23/01/2020 to 16/12/2021 (Scomo decision) and from 14/02/2023 (Consent orders) to 18/09/2024 (Husic issued his statement on PEP-11) [understandably Husic has not yet made a formal decision].


source: https://public.neats.nopta.gov.au/Opggs/Title/81775e2a-8d46-47f7-91c9-de6f10feca90

Dare I say it, I am firmly of the belief that if the Government are willing to delay this much, and stifle business, they are most likely not going to end up providing a favourable decision. I have said this ever since 2020.

The Labor party did a fine job of delaying this decision. It looks like they will take all the way up until 07/02/2025 (delay, delay, delay). They probably wanted to delay it for the same reason Scomo did: use PEP-11 as a political point scoring tool for the election (to pretend they are on the side of the voters).