Jid your arguments are logical. However, TFC share price...

Jid your arguments are logical. However, TFC share price responds to the markets, not logic. In fact the reverse logic appears to have a greater correlation.

To show you how this works try this exercise. Call up the AUD/USD chart on yahoo finance for the period 14th December 2015 to 2nd March 2016. Use the compare option to load TFC.ax for the same period. I chose this period as it happens to cover the 2.5 month period last year after the FED raised the rates by 0.25%, same as this year.

* Rise in AUD/USD 14th dec - 31 dec = 0.7165 - 0.7285 TFC from 1.49 - 1.58 , a rise and rise
* Fall in AUD/USD 31st dec - 18 Jan =0.7285 - 0.6861 TFC from 1.58 - 1.46 , a fall and fall
From this point TFC SP continued to fall to the 12th Feb TFC 1.11 while the AUD/USD was 0.7124 which is lower that the 14 dec price of 0.7165. So
* Fall in AUD/USD 14 dec - 12 Feb =0.7165 - 0.7124 TFC from 1.49 - 1.11 , a fall and fall
From then on
* Rise in AUD/USD 12 Feb - 2 Mar = 0.7124 - 0.7186 TFC from 1.11 - 1.80 , a rise and rise

Go figure the exact opposite to the sound logic of trying to use the AUD/USD relationship to predict what going to happen to TFC share price.

As I posted earlier on this topic, my strategy for the next couple of months are
* wait to this DCL (daily cycle low for TFC) plays over the next couple of days
* anticipating an Aussie stock Santa rally (as has happened over the last few years) and sell TFC into the rally taking some profit off the table. I won't be holding beyond 29 Dec. Sometimes the Santa rallies can last into the early weeks of January but I won't be taking the risk. The Fibs suggest that TFC could rally to the 1.75 - 1.83 region but this is only a guide. I'll set a price post Christmas and watch.
* Aussie markets seem to tank in January and February and TFC follows this trend and the shorter's have a field day exaggerating the effect. Sell high and buy low

You have to have a strategy. Will it play out? Who knows, but taking some money off the table is never a dumb idea. Time will tell. The market decides whether your a genius or an idiot.

cheers Lies