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The correlation I used was USD/AUD to TFC. So FX/TFC, rise/fall...

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city1866

1,853 Posts.

185

15/12/16

14:18

Post #: 21363614
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Originally posted by Lies&damnlies ↑

Jid your arguments are logical. However, TFC share price responds to the markets, not logic. In fact the reverse logic appears to have a greater correlation.

To show you how this works try this exercise. Call up the AUD/USD chart on yahoo finance for the period 14th December 2015 to 2nd March 2016. Use the compare option to load TFC.ax for the same period. I chose this period as it happens to cover the 2.5 month period last year after the FED raised the rates by 0.25%, same as this year.

* Rise in AUD/USD 14th dec - 31 dec = 0.7165 - 0.7285 TFC from 1.49 - 1.58 , a rise and rise
* Fall in AUD/USD 31st dec - 18 Jan =0.7285 - 0.6861 TFC from 1.58 - 1.46 , a fall and fall
From this point TFC SP continued to fall to the 12th Feb TFC 1.11 while the AUD/USD was 0.7124 which is lower that the 14 dec price of 0.7165. So
* Fall in AUD/USD 14 dec - 12 Feb =0.7165 - 0.7124 TFC from 1.49 - 1.11 , a fall and fall
From then on
* Rise in AUD/USD 12 Feb - 2 Mar = 0.7124 - 0.7186 TFC from 1.11 - 1.80 , a rise and rise

Go figure the exact opposite to the sound logic of trying to use the AUD/USD relationship to predict what going to happen to TFC share price.

As I posted earlier on this topic, my strategy for the next couple of months are
* wait to this DCL (daily cycle low for TFC) plays over the next couple of days
* anticipating an Aussie stock Santa rally (as has happened over the last few years) and sell TFC into the rally taking some profit off the table. I won't be holding beyond 29 Dec. Sometimes the Santa rallies can last into the early weeks of January but I won't be taking the risk. The Fibs suggest that TFC could rally to the 1.75 - 1.83 region but this is only a guide. I'll set a price post Christmas and watch.
* Aussie markets seem to tank in January and February and TFC follows this trend and the shorter's have a field day exaggerating the effect. Sell high and buy low

You have to have a strategy. Will it play out? Who knows, but taking some money off the table is never a dumb idea. Time will tell. The market decides whether your a genius or an idiot.

cheers Lies

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The correlation I used was USD/AUD to TFC. So FX/TFC, rise/fall is the same as what you are saying. And your prediction of what will happen in Jan/Feb, will also probably be correct

I like you both, youse both provide information that is great reading.

TFC Price at posting: $1.65 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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