World at Maximum Crude Pumping Capacity ..., page-18

"Hi @madamswer. Some think a recession is def coming and that that will really effect demand and cause a big rollover crash in energy prices until the recession(,part caused by high energy prices) is over.Others talk of enforced carless days etc to decrease energy usage.I agree long-term that we are in energy deficit,it's the timing I'm grappling with re buying more energy stocks.Appreciate your, and others thoughts.Thanks in advance."

@Dejavoo,

The recession is already here; it just takes a bit of time for it to be confirmed in the official economic data.

Here's the GDP expectation for the US:





And here's what's happening in the EU proxy, the erstwhile economic power house, Germany (major export-facing economy reporting its first trade deficit in over three decades):





Which is why we have had the following happen in recent weeks (this graph reflects the expectation of the difference in money market rates between end 2022 and 2023):




And remember, at the same time we've had the world's second-biggest, and fastest-growing, oil consuming country - China - in partial lockdown for much of the past few months.

And despite all those demand headwinds, we are on track for global oil demand to be well up on last year, and at pre-Covid levels.

The driver of oil demand is not car use in the western world, which will never vary by much over the short to medium-term; rather it is the following structural dynamic for the next decade or two:




I worry about a lot of things when it comes to investing in commodities, but in the case of this particular one, demand falling is not one of them.

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