Oils2006, you are absolutely right. The big picture is China supplying the word with manufactured goods and China wants the world's mineral resources to keep on doing it. People in Australia and the rest of the developed world are comfortable getting cheap material goods in this process. But it's all totally unsustainable and in 50 or 100 years from now, the world will ask what happened to the resources. If anyone doesn't believe me, go to some of our timber towns then try to find the forests of red cedar. Or go to the fishing ports and try to find the big catches of blue tuna. Mine's commonly have lives of 20 to 30 years before they are cactus. The fact is the world's resources are finite but we treat them as infinite. OK I'll stop ranting about that and get back to HIG and the Chinese.
Gram wants the copper at Frieda and they are in for the long haul. This mine s huge and will supply copper for many decades to come. The management at PanAust (i.e., Gram's frontdesk) have made it clear they are playing hard ball and HIG is in their way. HIG's directors need to earn their salaries and look after our investments. This recent announcement tells me that no one (except Gram) is in the market to buy HIG's 20% share of Frieda. And Gram's endgame is for PanAust to get Frieda as cheaply as it can, but at the same time it doesn't want any more delays.
PanAust's higher start up costs included the hydro scheme and social contract with the locals, because it wants to build the whole show in one go. The alternative is to develop slowly and focus on the most profitable mining first (with minimum cost to get up-and-running). But that process requires re-engineering of the energy supply, in particular, as the project expands. So there we have the dispute - PanAust's big picture approach (with plenty of funds available to them from Gram) versus the slower, pay-from-profits approach. HIG doesn't have the capital to match PanAust, so what will happen? The mediation may provide an answer. So at the very least, this recent news is a big step forward. The HIG board need our support, but they also can't be pushovers looking for the easy way out. We have a fantastic asset in Frieda and they need to fight for it. Any deal must include PanAust giving up, yes giving up, all of its shares in HIG and a payment to HIG for the value of the 20% stake, which must be well over $250 million. That is what Frieda is worth, IMHO.
HIG Price at posting:
5.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held