world cup is coming - queens birthday fixtures, page-18

GROUP A

South Africa
Mexico
Uruguay
France

Synopsis:

South Africa have drawn an identical group to that which greeted England as hosts in 1966, a coincidence that pleased John Motson no end. As the second-lowest ranked team in the competition, Bafana Bafana are being written off after failing to make the cut for the African Nations Cup in January and most previews seem eager to emphasis the task awaiting them by pointing out that two of their opponents come from the elite band of seven previous World Cup winners. France head into the tournament as pantomime villains following their infamous hand-assisted play-off clincher against the Republic of Ireland in November, while perennial play-off merchants Uruguay discovered their fate via another continent for the third successive tournament. Mexico required managerial surgery to secure their qualification, Javier Aguirre coming to the rescue with five straight wins in the CONCACAF section following a disastrous 10-month stint under the guidance of Sven-Goran Eriksson.

Managers:

No coach breeds contempt in his homeland more than Raymond Domenech, but the Catalan is as thick-skinned as they come. Astrology aside, some of his methods and principles make good practical sense but a lack of charisma is perhaps the best explanation for why his players seem unwilling to buy into his philosophies. South Africa have a man of huge experience in Carlos Alberto Parreira. The Brazilian will be taking charge at his sixth World Cup and should be trusted to deliver a significant improvement on results and performances of recent years, although it remains to be seen whether that will be enough to guarantee progression. Oscar Tabarez and Javier Aguirre will both be taking their respective countries to a World Cup for the second time. Tabarez was in charge of Uruguay for Italia 90, while Aguirre took control of Mexico for Japan/Korea in 2002, both of them progressing from the group stage before going out at the round of 16.

Cultural factors:

The climate and conditions will offer something for everybody, except France. South Africa are at home, so get it all their own way, Mexico are well accustomed to playing at altitude - Mexico City is 500m higher than Johannesburg - and Uruguay will enjoy weather patterns virtually identical to those in their own country at this time of year. One potential stumbling block for South Africa is the diversity of their team. In many African countries, people tend not to prioritise their loyalties towards to a common flag as much as in other continents and it can often be difficult to foster genuine team spirit among players from different tribes and ethnic backgrounds. Few teams can match Uruguay for national pride. With a population of barely three million, they certainly stick together - although outward displays of their Churrua Indian fighting spirit doesn't often do them any favours on the sporting field.

Truths:

History provides a catalogue of evidence to indicate that the host nation always gets a better deal than their opponents in regards to refereeing decisions, it's only the extent of this favouritism that should concern punters. If bias is subconscious, then it might be a case of timely whistles and stoppages of play when they need a pick-me-up. If it's blatant and shameless... well, we all remember the favours that were handed out to South Korea eight years ago. Mexico, as the most enterprising of the quartet, could hold the key to the dynamics of the group. A lack of peak-age personnel means performances tend to fluctuate from sublime to naive, sometimes from one moment to the next. If they ignite, they could drag the others out of their comfort zone. If they struggle to impose themselves, then entertainment might be in short supply everywhere.

Misconceptions:

The conventional wisdom is that France have too much quality for this group and will make it count when it really matters. However, success in 2006 owed a great deal to the inspiration provided by Zinedine Zidane in his career swansong and they now lack a spiritual leader. Thierry Henry is generally accepted as the figurehead of the team but question marks persist about his ability to impose himself on the big stage. If Les Bleus are looking to the former Arsenal striker for a Braveheart moment, they might well be disappointed. We should appreciate that South Africa haven't been setting the highest standards over the past few years but we shouldn't attach too much importance to those results. They have little relevance when placed in direct contrast to the biggest three matches in their football history.

Verdict:

The value, first and foremost, would appear to be found in supporting South Africa to qualify from the group at 21/10 and we reckon it could possibly at the expense of France. Man for man, the 2006 finalists are obviously the strongest team in the section but they have been perennial slow starters in major tournaments over the past decade and have found themselves in continual disarray over the past four years. This group has heavy potential to be low-scoring and it could be the case that all four teams head into the final round of matches with their fate still in their own hands. In that scenario, the French should expect few favours from the officials in Bloemfontein, not only because they are up against the hosts, but also in light of the embarrassing controversy that surrounded their qualification. With that in mind, we'll also top up our interest with small bets on the South Africa/Mexico dual forecast at 12/1 and the South Africa/Uruguay dual forecast at 14/1.

GROUP B

Argentina
Nigeria
South Korea
Greece

Synopsis:

Argentina head into a major tournament with expectations lower than at any point since they last lifted the trophy in 1986. The Albiceleste came through a wretched qualifying campaign in dramatic fashion with back-to-back wins over Peru and Uruguay in October. Now the national media don't give them much hope of achieving anything in South Africa, even though they accept the draw has been kind and could pitch them into the last eight with plenty left in the tank. Nigeria are favourites to join them in the last 16, despite the instability created by managerial upheaval in the build-up, but that says more about the history of Greece and South Korea than anything else. South Korea will be making their eighth finals appearance - an Asian record - while Greece have qualified for the second time, the last coming back in 1994.


Managers:

Diego Maradona needs no introduction. Arguably the greatest footballer of all time, his life over the past couple of decades has been the subject of persistent ridicule and it's a theme that appears to have followed him into management. He has virtually no track record to speak of but the respect of his players is guaranteed in light of his standing as a player. Otto Rehaggel can also count on unwavering respect from his men after guiding Greece to success at Euro 2004, which remains one of the most unlikely international triumphs of all time. Lars Lagerback has had very little time to make an impact at Nigeria, having replaced Shaibu Amodu following the 'failure' of finishing third at the recent African Nations Cup. Huh Jung-Moo will have his own point to prove with South Korea, having been ditched by his national federation to make way for Guus Hidink ahead of them co-hosting the tournament in 2002.

Cultural factors:

The pressure on Nigeria is huge. A population of 155 million people brings serious delusions of grandeur, meaning anything less than a quarter-final finish will be considered failure. Argentina could benefit from adopting a much more defensive approach under Maradona as it suits a default culture of high uncertainty avoidance. In previous tournaments, they've possibly suffered from an obligation to entertain owing to an abundance of technically-gifted individuals, but Maradona is determined to build from a solid platform this time around. Greece is also a country that likes a high level ofuncertainty avoidance in its day-to-day existence, which explains why the cautious tactics of Rehaggel provide an ideal cultural fit. South Korea tend not to perform too well outside of their own continent. Their only ever World Cup finals win in 17 matches outside of their homeland came against African minnows Togo four years ago.

Truths:

Don't dash home for any of the three games involving Greece - they'll be as dull as ditch-water to watch once again. The tactical blueprint that brought incredible success at Euro 2004 is still being diligently adhered to by many of the same players, under instructions from the same manager. Their goal threat is virtually non-existent from open play but they remain extremely difficult to break down and any team who concedes the first goal against them will have it all to do. South Korea, by contrast, have added a bit more cut and thrust to their game since the last World Cup and should be fancied to score goals, so the opener between those sides could reveal plenty. Meanwhile, Argentina's players should be expected to perform better with the benefit of time together. The qualification process was ravaged by instability, which merely served to expose all the shortcomings of long-distance travel during the thick of European club commitments.

Misconceptions:

Don't listen to anyone who says that Maradona doesn't know what he is doing. A veteran of four World Cup campaigns, he obviously knows a thing or two about the day-to-day aspects of tournament play and he has his own clear ideas about the way forward for the Albiceleste. Whether those ideas are naive or ingenious, only time will tell. But when quoted verbatim, his thoughts are both sensible and intriguing. Rightly or wrongly, he's a persecuted character and the general media narrative of his time in charge thus far could be every bit as misleading as the tiresome statistic about how many different players he has used. The idea that Lars Lagerback can solve all of Nigeria's shortcomings in the space of a few weeks is a difficult to buy into as well. Swedish managers are hardly revolutionaries by definition and you suspect it would require something extraordinary to suddenly get them performing as a cohesive unit.

Verdict:

Argentina should encounter few problems in a group containing very little World Cup pedigree but it's hard to get overly excited about odds of 8/15 on them to top the section because we couldn't dismiss any of the other three nations out of hand. They all have the capacity to make a name for themselves in a variety of different ways but confidence will play a key role in determining which it might be. Nigeria are the least enticing proposition, simply by virtue of them being the smallest price and facing Argentina first up. Indeed, the earlier match on June 12 could be crucial in giving someone else a head-start and, to that end, we'll stake our claim on Greece to be eliminated at the semi-final stage at 25/1. They're not a nation to set the pulse racing at this point but they would be extremely difficult to overcome if they got themselves into the knockout situation, which clearly their style is much better suited to. The jump between 8/1 on them reaching the last eight and 25s on the last four is clearly where the value is because the layers are assuming that is the point when they would meet a supreme heavyweight, which isn't necessarily the case.