your last line is the key , a lot has been thrown at it and it’s...

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ClaudeHenry

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17/06/22

12:52

Post #: 62055807
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Originally posted by Investau: ↑

I'm genuinely interested to see how all of this plays out - a few observations, not up or downramping but after careful consideration between A2M and Bubs over the past couple of years I put my stake in A2M:

- US Market is a risk/reward play. Bubs has had some media attention from being the first mover but this doesn't generally translate to longer term growth, that comes down to the sustained revenue numbers.

- Most companies will assess the entry into US for formula very carefully and I imagine have negotiated fairly strong terms around continued ability to sell formula in the US. Not saying Bubs have moved too quickly by any means, there can be advantage in this but it also comes with increased cost and risk.

- The US WIC subsidised sales is an interesting one - margins on sales into the WIC programmes will be very small so ongoing volumes would need to be large.

- I'd like to think A2M is operating it's production at maximum pace - they'll be a little scarred by the excess inventory last year but given the increased in sales in China, I imagine they'll be pumping out tins. If there is excess capacity then I would think the US bet would make more sense but if they diverted any capacity it would mean lower margins and higher risk

- I don't like the fact management is so silent but then why would they issue continual updates - only opens them up for criticism as things change and they have clearly made the decision to stick to the earnings releases and not feed pieces of information. It makes me a little uncomfortable but I get it and hope it reflects that they are focused on the business and long term sustained growth.

- I'm a believer in them keeping a good store of cash and not distributing it (share buy back kind've makes sense for confidence but I'm not personally interested in participating in that). I do hope to see plans for use of capital as the macro environment improves, that will likely take some time.

There's been a lot thrown at A2M over the past 3 years, I genuinely hope to see a strong turnaround and wish everyone well.

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your last line is the key , a lot has been thrown at it
and it’s 4 bucks not 20 , the product will be needed for hundred s of years , it is natural it’s top quality , if all that has happened and market is at 4 bucks in bear market after 3 years well that reads sensational for future invest on A2m.

A2M Price at posting: $4.15 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $6.64		Change -0.110(1.63%)		Mkt cap ! $4.800B

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your last line is the key , a lot has been thrown at it and it’s...

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