Hi @redned71The 20% MC/NPV at BFS stage and 30% MC/NPV ratio...

Hi @redned71

The 20% MC/NPV at BFS stage and 30% MC/NPV ratio with off-take agreements locked in are the typical ratios in many mining projects.

LKE's latest NPV8% = USD $1.6bil = AUD $2.15bil. It's MC today is $460mil = 21.5% of NPV.

GLN's latest NPV8% = USD $1.01bil = AUD $1.35bil. It's MC today = $240mil = 17.8% of NPV.

There are many moving parts that can help accelerate the journey or slow down the journey to those milestone ratios. Each and every step higher will need reinforcements (updates regarding pilot plant, drilling, drilling results, key personel hirings, "Major Project Status" renewal, enviromental approval, key items of BFS such as a plant to produce pellets, resource utilization upgrade,..and so many other possible updates along the journey) to stay and consolidate at that level before it can make its next move again.

Also trust me on these points:

1. When MC moves to around $230mil-$250mil and consolidate around there, you will see traders, short term holders moving out and longer term holders moving and sp becoming less and less volatile.

2. Once sp reaches 50c, things will move very solidly upwards, slowly but surely and a $1 sp is not that hard to be achievable. It is human psychology. At 50c and higher sp, you will be surprised how strong the sentiment and belief in this stock has become and prevail.


So, I agree with you that it won't be an easy road and it will take a lot of time but a MC of 20% to 30% of NPV in my opinion is achievable and in fact very normal as this project moves along with many neccessary updates along the way.


Notes: even if we use the NPV figure in the 2017 PFS at 8% when Fe65% was USD $85/ton (today it is around USD $250/ton), it is NPV8% of USD $1.651bil = AUD $2.2bil, MC of CAP should be right now, TODAY, = 20% of NPV = $440mil.

Of course we all know it's NPV8% is not USD $1.651bil any more in today IO price environment which I did break down into 3 scenarios of prices and resulted NPV8% that I did present in the 1st post of this thread. In other words, the $440mil MC is simply just ridiculous. It must be multiples of it.

Give it time.