CAP (ASX) WORLD'S BEST UNDEVELOPED IO PROJECT

Originally posted by redned71: ↑

G’day Tran.
love your work, thanks.
I think your debt/equity ratio is reasonable. It does mean we’ll see about $490m of equity input. Let’s hope we’re significantly higher by the time of the CR so dilution isn’t too bad. But as we are all doing now, I’m sure all loyal SH’s will happily stump up.

I must have missed seeing that those 8 commodity houses have signed new LOI’s for offtake? I thought that list refered to the previous time, with all those deals lapsed by now? I’m sure they’re all back negotiating to get new ones in place, but if they’re already done, that would be great.

your often quoted %’s of NPV as to what our mkt cap should be are wonderful numbers and I’m hoping you’re right about that and we eventually get there. Can you point to any previous examples of where those %’s were achieved before production and if possible at what stage they were at? That would be a good pointer as to when we can expect to achieve those % with the appropriate market cap.

I don’t see the $54/t as an issue at all. Long term IO chart https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/iron-ore shows its only been below $60 for a relatively short period (got near $40), but with our grade premium, we’ll still be making profit even at that super low price. However, I very much doubt we’ll see even $60/t at the bottom of the next cycle. I don’t subscribe to the “this time is different” scenario, but I do agree the world is looking at a lot of infrastructure in the coming years. That should cushion the next bottom.

I agree the current SP 18/19, even if it slips back/below 15 (don’t think we will), after we go ex, is irrelevant in the scheme of things. This one reminds me so much of Oxiana in the old days. That took several years, as this will. But <$10m to >$5billion was the outcome. OXR had many CR’s too. Plus a massive options conversion (25c). I was too scared to put my rather large cheques in the mail, so I hand delivered them.

I can’t remember who guided me to CAP. It would have been someone on TI1 or FEX board, as that’s where I started back in shares this time around. Whomever it was, a very big thank you. I can see CAP being my next life changing stock.

cheers,

ned.

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This is a very loose comparison, but in 2003 FMG announced it's initial scoping study for 20mtpa and it's market cap was between $50m and $300m during 2003/2004

They released their DFS in 2005 where their market cap reached between $900m and $2.3b between 2005 and 2006

Their market cap then reached over $14b in 2007 during commissioning phase, still before they shipped their first ore.

Iron ore prices during this time climbed up to around US$150 from US$60 in 2005

So this is a very loose comparison but gives you an idea how fast the market cap can go as the project progresses with offtakes and debt funding before they even shipped their first ore. Years before production the market cap was over $1b