CKK 15.8% 1.6¢ coretrack limited

worst case scenario to fulfill ws contract

  1. 1,855 Posts.
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    Some people on here have concerns about meeting the contract with WS. I DONT!!

    Here's why. To meet the conditions of the contract, CKK need to start building GT3000s by May and then complete them within 12 months. From what I have been told, the basic rig costs $4 million to build. The company has $6-7 million in the bank with cash burn while doing nothing of $1 million per quarter. That means that the company has 18 months to come up with $8 million. The company will need cash but not as much as believed. My point is, that the contract with WS does not need to be of concern. And if people are selling in anticipation of a capital raising, they will be waiting a long time. I have been told they would not consider one below 20 cents.

    Now a worst case scenario that is a little more realistic. This scenario will see CKK in a position where it has 3 operating rigs by May 2013 and thus satisfies the WS contract.



    If the share price flounders and a capital raisng takes place at 5 cents to raise $14 million an additional 280 million shares will be issued taking the total register to 515 million shares.

    To justify the current price of 7 cents, lets assume the shareholder would conservatively need a 15% return. This would require an after tax profit of $5.5 million (each rig profiting $1.8 million pa). From all accounts, this profit is below all estimates of rig profitability.

    I feel all assumptions made here are extremely conservative, low-ball figures and the worst case scenario described here justifies a price well above what it is now. I know this analysis is simple, but simplicity is often needed to get a basic point across. We have a bright future here and I wouldn't forget that.
 
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