I have no new info and certainly no facts to share, but I do occasionally like a rant, and a long one, so skip it if you want to be informed or entertained as it is fairly unlikely you will be either.
I enjoy almost all of the posts I read, so thanks, for info etc, but I particularly like the negative ones. They keep me in check, and even things out. It is hard to disagree with why Ralph for instance might say the things he says. I don�t understand why some take it personally, but I enjoy it. I also don�t necessarily agree with his outlook, but man I understand why. If Ralph is even half as frustrated and let down as I am, then it certainly makes sense. For some reason I find overwhelming negativity easier to take than some of the over the top optimism, but I like the arguments (although that betting thing was just annoying). thanks also to countless others for sharing time, effort, research, thoughts and guesses. Much appreciated.
My thoughts in no particular order
There is a massive platinum asset or group of assets. The dollars involved are huge. Someone will develop these assets in the next few years. Someone will make a lot of money from these assets, and it could be NKP shareholders, it will certainly be Genoah. Lots of parties want some of this. The situation they are dealing with is very complex. NKP currently have rights to assets, and enough rights to a particular part of these assets that are not in any from of dispute, to move forward. There are more challenges to some parts of the assets on the way, but not all.
Management don�t tell us as much as I would like, nor as often, and don't tell us everything. (some of this is due to ASX rules, but not sure how much). They sometimes answer some people who ask them stuff privately. (good if you are the recipient, bad if you are not). From their announcements, it is hard to tell if much progress has been made in the last 2 years. Timeframes are clearly not their strength. A BFS is an important document. A copy of any of the BFS's that they have done might prove that they have actually been doing something, and would prove to market how good the numbers are. There must be a good reason to keep it a secret.
They have made mistakes in the past. Some problems have been beyond their control. Some not. They are overwhelmingly positive in their outlook, which can be hard to take, as so far they have let me down and lost me money and not even been close with goals. They held my money captive for 3+ months for no good reason.
There are people trying hard to wheel and deal and as a consequence this might help me make money, (or break even). They are probably doing their best (so far their best has not been good enough). It is hard to keep believing and hard to remain positive, and keep being a shareholder, in the face of some of the problems. It is almost like a religion, (or at least a bizarre cult) some have faith regardless of any facts and history.
I am down a lot of $ and not at all happy about it. I want to see a BFS, any BFS. The work is done, the different scenarios are done. I don�t think it is too much to ask. More importantly I want the market to see them. It is 2 years late. I don�t want to see a just a few snippets of it either. I don�t like being told this far down the track that it is not as important as the JV, (even if it is true). A BFS is an important and tangible document with facts, (bankable funnily enough), that many iterations of, should have been in my hands for the last 2 years. A JV "discussion" is nothing. A JV on the other hand would be great. I think it is not in their best interests at this late stage to expect shareholders / market to believe that JV "discussions" are more important than tangible documents. Maybe this would have flown a long time ago, but not now. I want something tangible for the last 2 years, a BFS is the only thing available that fits this bill and has been promised to me. We are always in JV discussions. It is not tangible. I think it is in the company's best interests to release a BFS.
I want to know more, and be informed more often. The longer it goes on the more nervous I get and the more I crave information. The longer it goes on the more chance of them needing to raise cash.� I am certainly emotional about it. I am holding and have bought more recently. I still recon it is a good bet, and for my options sake I hope sooner than later. I think that management are firm believers and are trying hard. They just need to realise because of their track record, they need to tone down any optimism in any communication. They need to give and meet some timeframes (and take "communication to shareholders 101".)
I don�t have the venom for management that some do, I don�t love them, and have disagreed with some of the things they have done, and therefore been very disappointed at times, but I don�t hate them either. I certainly don�t think they try to leak info to people in any way to boost share price for options conversion or any other reason. I think that the reason they are a bit less than conclusive on the option extension stuff is that they believe that they are very close to a deal and assume they won't have to extend.
I try to treat any new info or announcement from them, to me or to others, as separate from historical let downs, and hope that it is true and accurate at the time, partly because that is their minimum legal requirement, and partly because if I did not, I could not be in anyway positive, and would have to sell. It is also possible that each announcement or phone conversation, or email is a very overly positive and maybe even slightly possible outcome at the time.
I think / hope, for no good reason (although they have said so, but that is not necessarily a good reason), that they are very close to some good news, at least with the part of their assets that are not in any form of dispute. I think and hope this is getting closer as time goes on, and not further away. I cannot explain why the share price is not up a bit if the above is true. I don�t think there is much trust in what is said as being what is going to happen at this stage. Perhaps even insiders have heard "wolf" being cried too often.
You know that disclaimer that appears on investment products, "past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes etc". surely that could apply here also in reverse.
I recon 2 weeks JV, options in money, I believe it. (It really is a bit religious). It is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility. The main reason I hold is that someone has a really valuable asset, and it could be us, and it could be anytime soon.
Thanks again to all posters, keep sharing thoughts and info much appreciated.
Rogorogers
PS I also might only believe the above, as I have pumped so much cash into this, that if it does not come good I am up the creek, and to think otherwise is not a option.
PPS Options will not be left to expire, (even if my guess on timing above is not right), it would be a brave executive director to email as such, and then let them expire, it has class action written all over it.
PPS And to that dude who stuck his neck out with the info he was given about time frame a week or two ago. Thanks, and that is sincere. If you get any info keep passing it on, even if it does not pan out how you were told, and how we wanted it to. I would rather see it and it be not right than not see it at all.
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