worst thing about delayed tol, page-43

Jaydog, I hear where you are coming from. No-one is going to have any evidence (unless Najib comes out and says something) about whether the tOL is to come before or after the elections.

The reason I held to the belief for a long time it would issue before the election is that I believed that Najib would want the plant up and running so it could be shown that it was comppletely safe well ahead of the elections. However, for that to happen and to give himself maximum flexibility, Najib would have been pushing to get the TOL out to Lynas as soon as practicably possible. That has clearly not happened. In fact, the very opposite has happened. We all know that the 2 additional conditions were very straightforward. There is no rational basis why there would or should be any delay. That is the thing that has led me to the view that the only sensible explanation is that Najib does not want it interfering with his re-election. If you couple that with the fact that many pundits are saying it will be a post budget October election and teh fact that even if the TOL issued next week, it woul dnot be operational until late September, it does not make sense why Najib would want to tie his re-election with the plant just coming on line. It would stir up the nutters. We know they are going to try to blockade the ports and picket the plant and stir up all sorts of trouble. IT would turn what Najib is trying to make a non-issue for his re-election into the principal issue. Why on earth would Najib want all that happening in the midst of his election campaign?

Look maybe Im wrong. If the TOL issues next week, great. I will eat humble pie and move on. But I have a view, it appears to make sense and there does not appear to be any other rational explanation for what is happening with the TOL. And I think it is important for that view to be ventilated. Apart from anything, I would love for someone to be able to show me where I may have erred, so I can rethink it. Nothing anyone has said in reply thus far has done so. Most of what has been said in reply has been based on facts (such as what Nick said) which are simply not true.

OK so Ive said my piece. Have a great weekend all.