Without trying to bottom pick, I couldn't resist today's action so bought a few more at near enough to 2c, which btw is the new all time low. The overall market also took a hammering today, so it wasn't isolated. However IDC over the last 2 days is down more than most, a whopping 16%.
Despite the huge fall on relatively low volume, there is obviously still perceived risk attached to the current SP, starting LEFT (current management's challenge to secure appropriate funding to complete the adit & prove up an additional 500,000oz), RIGHT (an outside few who are apparently keen to see the company stripped of it's EL1093 license due to what IMO can only be described as former management incompetence) and CENTRE (further weakness in the SP and the gold sector).
However with risk comes opportunity/potential reward and given that IDC's market cap is now a paltry $24m, from a EV per resource oz perspective there's never been a better time in the history of the company to own IDC shares IMHO
Around 6 months ago I posted below as a guide to revenue potential.
Remember that our 28moz brother's underground operation (Porgera) ran at an impressive 27g/t, so if our technical team were given the chance to prove up 20g/t instead of our current '>10g/t' estimate, then you can double the production ozs and revenue no.s in the above table without adding any further cost.
Is it any wonder that we still hear of protestors claiming to be landowners making headlines and trying to pinch a slice of the Mt.Kare' pie ;-)
But despite this and due to all the corporate bs over the last 6 months, the market now values IDC's half a million high grade (i.e. 10g/t or better) mineable ounces at just $48 per oz.
Note: If you include total JORC resources we're talking @$10/oz gold equiv. And I didn't factor in the recent $3.5million CR because the reality is that it is gone by the time you extinguish the secured debt, interest payable and the usual payments expected this quarter.
So what's changed since March when we were trading at 8.8c and the poorly designed Stephen Promnitz/Empire wheels began to fall off the train? Well there was that inevitable leadership spill
, further dilution to the scrip as expected and a secured creditor and loan to keep the doors open in the interim. But apart from that and some stories that were published I cannot think of much that has happened at all. But I suppose there lies part of the problem.
POG in AUD terms is down slightly and we are 6-9 months behind in the eight ball in our quest to have Mt.Kare producing gold by 2015 (now 2016 at best).
But importantly what does remain the same is the quality of our EL1093 resource/tenement, which as of this moment the company holds and will continue to do so unless the application for renewal is rejected. And what about the resource potential that our first class geo team in Messrs Burgess and Norman have documented? And don't forget our largest shareholders who are ALL still on board for the ride despite past, present and future headwinds.
So IF the company were to secure appropriate funding (via a CR and/or JV) to complete the adit, delineate an additional 500,000oz at 10g/t, finish the LIR and secure an ML, then it is still very easy to imagine the potential upside this stock has to offer at these levels IMO, especially given that only six months ago we were trading at more than four times the current SP.
And who do you think will be silently but quickly averaging their positions in the event that funding is secured?
Good luck whatever your position.
Note: my opinion should not be relied upon nor considered as advice of any kind. Please DYOR.
