Context for mining Riley Creek at present:
1) Flagging IO price
2) High Australian dollar
3) Unresolved court action, stop-work injunction likely to be granted if sought by appellant
Context for waiting until after November court action before mining Riley Creek:
1) IO price likely higher due to (a) depletion of currently high stockpiles, and (b) reduction in supply brought about by cessation of mining by junior/high cost operators
2) Australian dollar likely lower due to imminent cessation of quantitative easing at the Fed in the US
3) Resolved court action (highly likely in favour of Venture), with no legal scope remaining for STT to impede mining
Seeing as the resolution of the court case is only a quarter away, I don't see the merits of pushing ahead and trying to mine Riley for relatively bland profits, especially in the context of a certain stop-work injunction application from STT. To do so would have needlessly lost money and social capital (hiring workers, raising hopes, and then having to lay them off indefinitely when the stop-work injunction came). By contrast, keeping our "powder dry" until after November costs no money other than admin, further amplifies public resentment of STT, and gives management time to assess economic trends in the next 3 months.
If the IO price was well over $100 (and likely to fall in medium-term future) and the $AU was sub 90c (and likely to rise in medium-term future) then maybe a more hasty and aggressive approach might be warranted. But the precise opposite is actually the case.
VMS Price at posting:
7.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
