worth staying in

I am holding Neo since September 04.
I also had thoughts of ofloading Neoo after the last announcement.
Then I looked at the announcements since September, which indicated:

Oil: JH 1, Between 10 and 100mbo.
Gas: According to Kain at least 15 to 20bcf per well.

Say we take the minimum of oil: 10mbo@(by now)$20=$200m
Neo's share 30%= $60m.

Say we take the minimum of gas: 4x15bcf(shallow zones only)=60bcf@$6(producing)=$360m
Neo's share 30%=$108m

Total value $60m + $108m=$168m

168m:714m shares= $0.235

And that does not yet include reserves in the deeper layers.

I figured that buying at an avarage of 0.9cents, that is a damn good return to at least wait for the test results.

According to were I sit 23.5 cents is realistic, once they start producing, which can be expected in the 3rd or 4th Q.
The oppies should be safe within a month or so, if my story works out.

The only thing that can spoil the whole thing is, if we were conned with desception by management of NEO and OPL.

Maybe I am wrong the way I calculated, as I am by no means an expert in this field. Just a good listener (reader).
Please correct me were I went wrong.