On current polling NZ first would likely be the larger coalition partner.
Labour can not govern without the greens.
It is my opinion the based on the NZ first policy of "seek higher crown levies on minerals extracted and return 25 percent royalties to the source region" will be at odds with the greens wanting to extend schedule 4 areas.
Also I believe that NZ first will not side with the greens if it costs jobs and revenues that are so significant, particularly as the environmental impact are zilch.
If NZ first and labour go alone the revenue to the local area will be too good to resist for Winston.
The better the grades, the more likely that even the government can't ignore the $$$$
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