Sir Mick, Here's what Rene Rivkin would have said if he'd still been around.
Step 1. Evaluate the bid. Is is all cash, scrip or a combination? In this case it's all cash which is a great thing.
Step 2. Sit on your hands. Do nothing. Go outside and have a cigarette. There's plenty of time for things to crystallise or develop. Warren Buffet once said that the stockmarket is a process whereby the impatient give all their money to the patient.
Step 3. This is one for the brave. If the offer is all cash and likely to proceed without too many conditions to meet, then consider buying on market if the shares are trading below the offer price. (They are) The rationale is that you'll pick up a return of 2-3 % over 8-10 weeks with limited downside and some potential upside.
Step 4. Listen to the Board. What are they saying? In this case, i'm not overwhelmed by their apparent willingness to let this go cheap, but there's no harm in talking and listening to them.
Step 5 Don't sell on market if you don't feel that you have to or feel that you want to lock in the profits. If a competing bidder turns up, then you are in heaven. Stand back and watch the fireworks. Also, The initial bidder may discover that they need to up their offer if they want to get the deal done. I suspect that with the recent Lynas takeover bid also coming from WES, that WES is highly motivated to get something done. Let's make them pay for what they want.
Step 6. See Step 2.
I have a shitload of KDR shares and the feeling I'm seeing on HC is that about 95% of holders want to vote "No" to $1.90. Somewhere in the Wesfarmers statements was a line that read, "We value KDR at $2.00 so a $1.90 bid seems fair. (I'm quoting this from memory so DYOR) Seems to me that WES may just be firing a first bullet to see what happens. They have IMHO, some extra depth in their pockets before this one has played out to it's conclusion.
GLTAH and may the takeover Gods guide you all to good decisions. (Me too)
KDR Price at posting:
$1.87 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
