Big call on an Italian peak, though do hope you are right, following the China track, and accepting the data, you would need at least 10/14 days to make that call on Italy.
Certainly agree Italy a bellwether, should we see a peak/plateau form next 10 days or we may have a template for EU/US and some basis for sanity.
Italian death rate some concern but without the demographics difficult to assess.
On balance I'm sticking with GS summary: "Feels more like 9/11 than 2008".
Big call on an Italian peak, though do hope you are right,...
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