wow i give up, page-32

Good post there Caylus, enjoyed reading that and sums up most points concisely.

The only problem is that price action in the short term doesnt really care about the fundamental arguments you pose. If one is trading medium term time horizons then the technicals will marry the fundamentals and prices will most likely move lower. But whether prices go higher or lower tomorrow or the next day or next week is anyones guess. All you can rely on is price action which can remain irrational for long periods. You may be right eventually, but whether you can make money from it is another view.

"I have a nasty feeling that the market is rising on buyers being forced to buy, not because they want to buy."

I too agree with this point, but thats the same as picking bottoms because "people are being forced to sell, not because they want to". Why not have the view, bide your time and then when the technicals break down, you can get short.

I was short bias all of the last two weeks as the markets chopped which i thought was a prelude to coming lower, but when the Dow couldnt go down on such bad news last week i turned around for a small loss and went long as i knew i was in the wrong position. The market may come lower (and i agree with all your points and am medium term bearish) but there is money to be made on the long side until then.

Happy trading.