"Unfortunately, if 12 years of trading has told me anything, the market can be wrong a lot longer than you can stay solvent."
If you have only been trading 12 years you have never experienced a savage bear market then. I have been investing since the 1974 recession so that was my baptism of fire. I then experienced 1987. Both those experiences taught me that humans over-react on the upside but more so on the down side. Fear is a stronger emotion than greed. That convinced me to load up from October. I bought a tad early but I kept buying as the indexes plummeted lower. The fear was greater than 1974 and 1987 and therefore my experience of those years told me the selling in late 2008/early 2009 was way overdone. I had no idea when the bottom would be reached, but I did know panic had set in and the fear factor was through the roof. You just had to look at the VIX.
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