Wow my time to Top up, page-22

See my post Post #:59205911. Stop thinking about how Lynas Revenue and Profits are going up. They are going up dramatically that is true. Even at these growth rates it will be years before Lynas metrics are similar to other successful companies. There is nothing wrong with Lynas!!! It is just the Euphoria push the SP up way beyond any reasonable calculated value. Because it was in such a growing market few could distinguish between a good company with a bright future and a hyperinflated stock price. I also feel it will be revealed some of its construction projects are in trouble. These will be handled but if stock is in a down trend, it will make it worse. I have no idea where the bottom will be. Alot depends on how much pessimism replaces the optimism. pessimism often drives stocks below their fair value, Just likes optimism drives it higher. I do know just like the top was very clear so will the bottom be clear.

BHP BV / Share is up 6% its BV is 33 % of its SP. RIO is flat its BV is 44% of stock price. Lynas book value is 1.08B if we take a % between RIO and BHP its 38%
So a MC of 1.08/ 0.38 = 2.84B. now book grew in 2021 by less than 2%. If we assume 4% growth in in 2022 and 8% Groth in 2023. What do you think a fair stock price is for both those years? JMO 2022 ending BV 2,25* 1.04 = 2.94B /900M shares is 2022 is a SP AUD 3.1. For 2023 2.94B X 1.08= 2.19B / 900M shares =3.54 in 2023. You obtain better numbers working with profits.

PE for S&P 500 was in the 30s a few weeks ago long term average is just under 16. So Lynas as a growing company with an exciting market should have a PE of 20. In 2021 they earned 0.18 a share. Lets say that jumps by 2X to 0.36 a share in 2022 times a PE of 20= 7.20. August Sept of 2022. Usually when markets correct they over correct. Here is a long term chart of S&P PE showing correction. What do you think should be used for a PE? You will have to decide if a 2X improvement in earnings is reasonable. In a couple of weeks weeks we will have the SAR which will show new book value and earnings and you should be able to adjust my numbers up or down. Not long after that the Q3 report which means we will know revenue for 3/4 of year.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart#google_vignette

In conclusion it is all just a guess I think a bottom in the 3.xx range is possible. There will be a fairly quick correction to the 5.00 ~ 6.00 range. I will wait for a new bottom to be established. Then buy when stock moves up 15% from that bottom. I do not have any idea where bottom will be for sure. I do know it will be easy to spot when it happens. Even if I see bottom establish in the 4.00~5.00 range I will buy with a 15% up tick. Signs of a top or a bottom. It approaches quickly then just bounces along with small ticks up and down. Lynas up ramp started on 2/20 2021 the bounce period was jan. 3 to jan19. this was a very fast top and I am still not sure it is the finale top. The only reason I believe it is is market mode moved from optimism to pessimism for all stocks very quickly starting late October.