ITE i.t.& e limited

it&e (ITE)AA,the rights issue is a non issue.It is just like...

  1. 399 Posts.
    it&e (ITE)

    AA,

    the rights issue is a non issue.

    It is just like being prudent and having a credit card, or an overdraft facility for working capital.....

    Interestingly the question is-- why were UXC prepared to accede so readilly--That is the value question here....and at these low market cap levels the dilution is almost non existent....in relative terms to the Core Issues....

    There is only one Core Issue.....

    The wood from the tree's issue that will excite more investors,and drive the sahre price-- is simply and clearly this......

    Who are The Banks .....that it&e.... are doing the current POC's --(Proof of Concepts With)-- ....??..

    And (2) and related to that is:

    Are there any Large Globally recognized Banks in that group....?


    And (3) --is there any Larger than usual --)multi strand for example)--deal or deals in the Pipeline that will blow out the Revenue for the pending Full Year figures....? --and because of who it is--will have a immediate and major reputational brand equity impact on the Top line.....revenues....???

    And (4) -- with the deals discussed in the Reports --Asian Tier One, Pittsburgh, NAB coming onto PTX, Tier One Aussie Bank at POC, and the 2-3 extra either POC or Shortlistied--(Well we now know ....that there is one other Major Global Tier One--at POC stage)-- that on my count; is either 5-6 deals that WILL be recognized for the pending Full Year Earnings.....

    So that is -- 5 or 6 times 5-6 millions per contract....with maybe one special (being the Qld Treasury that I'll just put 1 million on for. ...
    So take the worst of that.....

    It gives us about 25m at worst and quite goodish say 30 m. But I'm happy with the 25 m. + 1 for the Qld deal. Then add about 11 for reccurring licence fees and maintenance...

    So we are $36m on the Top Line.

    And today is the first week of March.

    So what are the probabilities of 7 New Deals being the number--given that the above calc was on 5-6...but numerated at 5.....?

    Quite good ....I would have thought.

    So if it is 6 total new deals-- add 4 m for a tier 2 Bank, and add 8m for two (2) new tier 2 banks. I now 'discount' any more Tier One banks.--for until June 30--2007.

    For point of exercize let's be "negative and not optimistic-- and just stay with 6 Banked Finalized Contracts before June 30, plus Qld Treasury already done--and maintenance rev and on going licence fees....and no premium for Takeover talks....

    So we have ....$40M on the Top Line.

    You can see why ITE mgt are frustrated about silly "timing"---for Reporting accounts-- which is all that "today was about"--nothing more and nothing less.

    Focus instead on what is reasonable going forward--...
    And most of "it"(what is reasonable is already either in the bag--Qld Treasury, NAB PTX, Asian Tier One, Pittsburgh--(that's four) -- plus the 2-3--it'll be 3 in all likelihood --of which today they confirmed that 2 Tier Ones are "in the middle"-- of POC --Proof of Concept--so that equals-- six or seven ...

    And it is only the first few days now--of March, 2007.

    And the bulk of licence fees are re invoiced and due in the second half from their existiing Clients like HSBC, ANZ, Bear Sterns etc etc....

    And to repeat--it is only the first few days in march--2007.

    The mantra...is....".look forward...."--















    So today is first week of March.

    -So let's also hopefully get a peek at the sales pipeline come April May--and hope to add say 2 more--that can be accounted for either in full or part for June 30 2007....

    So we have ....$40M on the Top Line.

    And that was not counting the best outcomes on the aboe scenario...

    But again, I can just arbitratilly.... back that figure ....of $40m-- back to say 28-33 millions on the Top line and everyone can still be happy.

    We will still have $6-8 minimum NPAT on the bottom line.

    Where is the "rights issue" in all of that.

    It is a footnote. It is there, but it is a footnote. It is not central.

    What is central is--Who--yes Who-- are these new Banks, will they domino into and onto other Banks, abnd how quickly--and what sort of "splash" will this ahve and how much Revenue and therefore profit does this represent.

    Finally i also note the following. There was and is not --today --by (ITE) of any backing away from the previous forecast for profits for financial year 2007.

    And on my calcs as above, ther will notn be.

    Relax. Wait for the POC deals to be anoucned and let's see who they are, waht they are and their ramifications and of what significane and consequence they are.

    All else ....is just ....."noise" ....

    Kindest Regards,

    Robbo.












    W




 
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