wow wow, page-47

  1. 10,021 Posts.
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    Yes and in this business you also have a lag with promotions putting rebates and volume discounts and media costs from promotions often into the next accounting period so effectively if you manage timings correctly with holiday periods you can have 2 good quarters a year to pump on and investors think it will continue and then a reset etc etc. The cycle goes on. Some companies use these " costs" or expected costs to smooth accounts and others use them them the other way to create a impression of a period of increased margins and sales volume and the sting comes later if volumes don't expand.. Quarterly cash reporting helps keep an eye on this but relies on clear honest commentary and knowledge of what promotions were run and estimating when cost for those will hit the books. Of course everyone was thrown years back when Walmart claimed back all that $ over inventory and pricing.

    Having a big promo just before aussie fin year close may be dressing the window with all the volume out the door stuffing retail lines and invoiced but reality is it is in clients wharehouses not company wharehouse. What really matter is re-orders from actual sales as wharehouses go to normal stock levels.

    Shareholders have to force management to be very clear about numbers and also about discounts, rebates etc and when they are payable / refundable etc along with upfront promotional costs. Ratio of promotion cost and return tells them if the promotion was successful and creating ongoing sales that can later possibly have higher margin.

    You can never be 100% sure what tactics management are using and how successful promotions are unless you are on the inside an d seeing all the data so unsure what tactic they are using but new management always want numbers to look good so they can justify change etc.
 
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