I think your estimates are over simplified -
The main thing dragging back woodside is more around asset selldown and execution risk associated with a lot of merger and FID.
The problem with FID is right now only 50% of those volumes are sold on a long term contract.
But seeing what happened with Wheatstone downgrade, i assume some of the new volume will go towards fulfilling existing contracts.
So the net amount available may be less than 50%
If you are to take a stab at valuation, the best way I think is reasonable is making the assumption the current demand for LNG will be sustained, leading to a medium term demand that will deliver a reasonable return for Woodside - At the long term oil price of $65 forward contracts, the profit margins are ok - not great. But sufficient to produce healthy payout of around 7% yield + Franking.
So if you are after yield then the current playbook is based on dividends.
If you really want to go with the ferries and try to drum up a sky high valuation, then you will assume, the structural supply of oil and gas will deplete faster than the demand curve (this thesis is reasonable, given a lot of majors are still resist increasing supply, merely just replacing what exists)
And for a brighter future, Woodside will have a place in renewable energy in the decades ahead.
A lot of these moving parts is not to Woodside, it's market driven.
But the higher spot prices will help with executing these transitions - making it a safer bet than what was a year ago when the Woodside was sold at $27.
For me, the risk is actually reduced rather than increased vs a year ago.
But the market is forward looking, when it last traded at $27 - i think we were over the moon, thinking mistakes are long gone and woodside will be valued back to where it was.
The problem with that thinking is, the available reserve life of woodside diminishes over time.
It's like saying a Car was once worth $50K it is still worth $50K in 10 years time, it doesn't, it simply depreciate, but the parts of the vehicle / infrastructure still holds value. (using a car analogy is not the best, but you get my drift here). But Woodside may be worth $30 again if it can execute FID well and add the reserve necessary to be valued against existing infrastructure to keep it going for another decade.
it's been a while since i posted on a PC for HC - Hope the above helps. I enjoy writing down my thinking so the process is thought out.
(20min delay)