I think with an investment such as WPL, the prevailing market price at present doesn't and won't make much sense for a while. Nor will it necessarily for a time to come.
I suspect, however I could be wrong, that the ESG type pressures will prevail until it is almost madness for people not to own the underlying assets. Then you will see a rush for exposure to the assets and their cash generating ability.
As pointed out extensively, supply of hydrocarbons is falling off a cliff. The low-hanging fruit has been extracted and consumed.
The supply cliff has been only accelerated by the ESG movement. Sure it's sensible for the E part for hydrocarbon supply to fall, but borders on madness for the S and G part of the acronym. As logically all it will do is push up energy costs for those that can least afford it as a transition into more sustainable forms of energy production was not forthcoming.
I suspect that in the fullness of time, ironically, we will end up seeing Govt's having to fund/subsidise hydrocarbons just to placate a furious society who find that the abundant energy they took for granted no longer exists.
The demand side of the equation for hydrocarbons is unfortunately not falling anywhere near the same extent as supply is. Remember supply must be replaced, for output to remain even constant, this is just not happening at present.
The market equilibrium is now most likely going to intersect at a modestly higher level on the demand curve, yet against a dramatically lower part of the supply curve. And we all know what happens to price in this kind of scenario.
Short of Govt subsidies, I suspect this results in sustained higher prices.
The best exposure in such a scenario is:
-a low cost producer
-with long life assets (giving heavy exposure to the prevailing pricing dynamics)
-reasonable proximity to markets with strong demand
-Assets acquired, built and developed with what I call 'old money' and now able to be acquired at valuations representing prices at which one could not replicate the assets for love nor money.
Sound familiar???
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